“反内卷”交易升温，工业品板块普遍上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]