宏观利好提振，聚烯烃延续走高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]