新能源及有色金属日报：现货升水转为贴水-20250711

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - The gap between the macro bullish sentiment and the fundamentals may drive the zinc price back to normal, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [3] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium was $4.68 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 240 yuan to 22,400 yuan per ton, with the premium down 20 yuan to 55 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also rose by 240 yuan, with Guangdong at 22,330 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -15 yuan per ton) and Tianjin at 22,340 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -5 yuan per ton) [1] - On July 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,120 yuan per ton and closed at 22,385 yuan per ton, up 305 yuan. Trading volume was 146,456 lots, down 8,057 lots, and positions were 112,634 lots, down 2,128 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,110 - 22,430 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, it became colder with the market rising. Tianjin and Guangdong turned to discounts, while East China had a slight premium [3] - In June, zinc supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July was still as high as 590,000 tons, with supply pressure remaining [3] - Social inventory increase widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. Refinery finished - product inventory and zinc alloy inventory increased significantly, alloy operating rates declined, and negative feedback from invisible inventory may have occurred [3] - The mine - end TC increased further, smelting profits expanded, and smelting enthusiasm grew, maintaining supply pressure [3]