新能源及有色金属日报：外交部称特朗普对铜施征关税不符合任何一方利益-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st pushed up Comex copper prices, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined. If the tariff policy is implemented, it may be too late to transport copper to the New York market, leading to an increase in LME copper inventory. Currently, short - term LME copper is weak, SHFE copper is in a downward oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see. However, the copper supply - demand fundamentals won't change fundamentally [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On July 10, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,600 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,590 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: On the previous day, the premium of SHFE copper spot collapsed. As the price dropped and the month - spread widened to over BACK250 yuan/ton, near the contract change, holders sold actively, causing the premium to fall rapidly. Mainstream flat - copper premiums dropped from 40 - 80 yuan/ton to near - flat, and there were discounted goods around 11 am. Premium copper like Jinchuan large - board was traded at a premium of 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Non - registered goods had significant price drops, with discounts over 200 yuan/ton. Other goods in Changzhou were traded at discounts of 80 - 40 yuan/ton [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Many Fed officials spoke. St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought the impact of tariffs on inflation might not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit could be a financial stability issue. San Francisco Fed President Daly considered a rate cut in the fall and expected two rate cuts this year. Governor Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a July rate cut. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides were in close communication on economic and trade concerns. The Foreign Ministry stated that Trump's 50% copper tariff was not in anyone's interest [3] - Mine End: On July 9, Canadian junior mining company Super Copper agreed to acquire 100% of the Castilla copper project in Chile for a $100,000 advance payment. The total price is $1.3 million, with most payments due after achieving key milestones. The project covers 5,800 hectares in the Atacama region and includes 20 exploration concessions. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of July [4] - Smelting and Import: In 2025, 24 cathode - copper producers with a total effective capacity of 12.065 million tons (up 7.25% from last year, accounting for 83.84% of the national total) were tracked. From January to June 2025, they produced 6.0585 million tons of cathode copper, a 10.07% year - on - year increase. June output was 1.0617 million tons, up 12.91% year - on - year and 1.02% month - on - month. July output is expected to be stable at around 1.06 million tons, up 13.22% year - on - year. The US 50% copper import tariff won't affect Indian companies due to India's copper shortage, high domestic demand, and low copper exports to the US (only about 10,000 tons) [5] - Consumption: Based on a survey of 31 domestic copper - rod producers (with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tons), the daily copper - rod order volume was 12,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons (18.21% month - on - month) from the previous day. The refined - copper rod order volume was 8,100 tons, down 4,000 tons (32.91% month - on - month), and the recycled - copper rod order volume was 4,100 tons, up 1,300 tons (45.33% month - on - month). The actual transaction prices were 79,000 - 79,150 yuan/ton for self - pick - up and 79,100 - 79,200 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,625 tons to 108,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 393 tons to 21,729 tons. On July 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,700 tons, a change of 800 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Related Data Tables - Spot (Premium/Discount): On July 11, 2025, SMM 1 copper had different premium/discount situations for different types of copper. For example, premium copper was at a premium of 35 yuan/ton, flat - copper was at a discount of 5 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton. The Yangshan premium was 62, and LME (0 - 3) was 22 [25] - Inventory: LME inventory was 108,100 tons, SHFE inventory was 84,589 tons, and COMEX inventory was 202,671 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts were 21,729 tons, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 35.71% [26] - Arbitrage: The spreads such as CU09 - CU07, CU08 - CU07, and ratios like CU08/AL08 and CU0/ZN08 had specific values on July 11. The import profit was - 571, and the SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) was 8.12 [26][27]