农产品日报：棉价偏强震荡，纸浆低位回升-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term upward trend of domestic Zhengzhou cotton is supported by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is limited by the trade war. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, there will be significant pressure on cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the third - quarter Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] - For pulp, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,196 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The US USDA reported that as of the week of July 3, the net signing of US upland cotton this year was 17,000 tons, and the shipment was 55,000 tons, with 272 tons net - signed to China and no shipment that week [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather story is insufficient this year. With the expected increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory provides short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and good growth of new cotton may lead to increased production. Weak demand in the off - season and accelerated inventory accumulation of finished products restrict the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton. In the long - term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term strength of Zhengzhou cotton is affected by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is difficult to increase due to the trade war. Cotton prices will face pressure after the new cotton is concentrated on the market [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,805 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,895 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The Philippines SRA approved the import of 424,000 tons of sugar to maintain stable supply [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. In the short - term, the supply - side pressure has been largely reflected, and there is a possibility of a rebound. For Zhengzhou sugar, the fast sales progress of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory make the spot price firm. However, the increase in import profit and the expected arrival of subsequent shipments will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range in the third quarter, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,196 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+1.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price showed an upward trend, with different price adjustments in different regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. However, slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high. Demand: Affected by the tariff policy and the traditional off - season, global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - Neutral. The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6]