新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝交割风险尚未解除-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of restricted supply, the high industry profit of electrolytic aluminium is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminium prices. In the short - term, the further rise of aluminium prices requires the resonance of macro - economic improvement and stronger micro - consumption. Attention should be paid to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected. For alumina, the cost is stable, but the expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. For aluminium alloy, the cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminium - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,710 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,800 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 20,520 yuan/ton, closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 138,934 lots, an increase of 36,365 lots, and the position was 255,633 lots, an increase of 5,534 lots [1] - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 466,000 tons, and the LME aluminium inventory was 395,725 tons, an increase of 4,925 tons from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,133 yuan/ton, closed at 3,208 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 2.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 513,954 lots, an increase of 162,240 lots, and the position was 244,546 lots, a decrease of 4,110 lots [2] 3.1.3 Aluminium Alloy - Price: On July 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminium - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,150 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short - term, wait for the callback caused by inventory accumulation, macro - factors and tariff impacts to find long - term opportunities to layout long positions. In the long - term, pay attention to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected [3] 3.2.2 Alumina - The cost is stable, and the smelting profit still exists. The expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance has a surplus of about 200,000 tons, but the spot market does not show an obvious surplus. The delivery risk still exists [4][5] 3.2.3 Aluminium Alloy - It is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.3 Strategies 3.3.1 Single - sided - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminium positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [7]