部分持货商存惜售情绪，铅价高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream battery enterprises are gradually entering the peak demand season. It is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.79/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On July 10, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,897 lots, down 2,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52,534 lots, up 273 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,295 yuan/ton and a low of 17,120 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes narrowed to near par with SMM1 lead, but actual transactions were scarce, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales faced difficulties in closing deals. In Yunnan, holders' quotes at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales met with just the rigid demand. With a slight increase in lead futures prices, some holders were reluctant to sell and were waiting and seeing or intended to deliver to the warehouse, while downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement, resulting in a slight decline in market transactions [3] Inventory - On July 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 61,000 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the same period last week. As of July 10, the LME lead inventory was 252,375 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3]