光大期货农产品日报-20250711

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "sideways" or "sideways - weak" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures ended with a small doji star with an upper shadow. After two - month position - reduction adjustment, the position of the weighted contract increased. The spot price in the Northeast decreased by about 20 yuan/ton this week. The price is expected to fluctuate around 2320 - 2330 yuan, and may move towards the 2200 range if the support is invalid [1] - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - month low. The USDA is expected to raise the inventory estimates of US soybeans in 24/25 and 25/26. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 1193 tons, up 24% year - on - year. Domestically, protein meal stabilized due to improved macro sentiment, but the spot market was weak. Short - term unilateral participation is recommended, and long 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of soybean meal are advised to be held [1] - BMD palm oil declined due to a bearish MPOB report. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 10.52% month - on - month in June, while inventory increased by 2.41%. Domestically, palm oil futures fell, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. Oils are expected to move sideways, and intraday trading is recommended [1] - Egg futures hit a new low and then rebounded. The spot price was mostly stable. After the plum - rain season, demand is expected to boost egg prices, but the high is expected to be lower than last year [1][2] - Hog futures fluctuated narrowly and rebounded at the end. The spot price decreased slightly. Pig prices are under pressure but also have support, and are expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Market Information - US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 50.3 tons in the week ending July 3, up 9% from the previous week. 2025/2026 net sales were 24.8 tons. Exports to China were zero in both years [3] - CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.694879 billion tons, up 14.7% year - on - year and down 0.1% month - on - month [4] - MPOB data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month [1][4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract spreads are presented for corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and hogs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13] - Contract basis is presented for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [14][15][19][20][25]