宝城期货动力煤早报-20250711

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the near future, but the upside is limited. The peak summer electricity - coal demand is strong, and the middle and lower - stream inventories are gradually decreasing, which drives the coal price to rise slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the coal price rebound [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Supply Side The end of the national safety production month allows the coal mines with production suspension and limitation in the main production areas to resume production after rectification, leading to a slight increase in thermal coal supply [4]. Demand Side Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak - summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region will be more than normal, with 20% - 50% more precipitation in most parts of Yunnan. There is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [4]. Port Inventory As of July 3, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [4].