金融市场分析周报-20250711

Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Non-manufacturing PMI for June stands at 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Comprehensive PMI output index for June is 50.7%, rising by 0.3 percentage points compared to May[7] Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% during the week[5] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 14,413.96 billion CNY, down by 452.78 billion CNY from the previous week[25] - Financial sector stocks showed strong performance, with a 1.86% increase, while the technology sector faced a decline of 1.28%[5] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 13,753 billion CNY this week, with a total of 65,522 billion CNY in reverse repos executed[12] - The average weighted repo rate for overnight transactions fell to 1.3606%[12] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable in the upcoming week, with limited seasonal impacts anticipated[13] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.641%[14] - Credit bond yields across various maturities have generally declined, with 1-year AAA-rated bonds yielding 1.6791%[21] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased by 851.22 billion CNY, indicating a recovery in the market[17] Investment Outlook - The "Big and Beautiful" U.S. policy is expected to accelerate the weak dollar cycle, potentially leading global capital to seek refuge in Chinese assets[29] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend as the economy transitions, with a focus on technology and military sectors for investment opportunities[29] - Risks include potential tightening of monetary policy and unexpected economic recovery that could lead to a significant rebound in bond yields[30]