有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工厂，有机硅产能有力出清

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the closure of Dow's UK plant, which has a capacity of 145,000 tons, is part of a strategy to optimize European assets and focus on high-value derivatives, signaling a potential marginal improvement in the organic silicon industry [6] - The report anticipates that the exit of overseas capacity will lead to an increase in the prices of organic silicon base materials, alleviating some of the downward price pressure caused by global overcapacity [6] - The report notes that the domestic manufacturers with better cost control are likely to benefit from the demand shift due to the closure of overseas plants [6] - The report emphasizes that the organic silicon industry is entering a phase of supply-side pressure relief, with a significant increase in production capacity expected in 2024, but the lack of large-scale new capacity following this period may lead to improved supply dynamics [6] - The report indicates that the domestic demand for organic silicon is expected to grow steadily, driven by increased penetration in emerging fields such as electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic cells [6] - The report also highlights that China's exports of polysiloxane are projected to reach approximately 80,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a significant growth opportunity as overseas demand remains strong [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis showing a range of market movements from -15% to +29% for the basic chemical sector against the CSI 300 index from July 2024 to July 2025 [3] Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss trends in deep-sea technology, policy impacts on capacity overcapacity, and the recovery of demand for light initiators, indicating a broader context for the organic silicon market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Sanyou Chemical as potential investment opportunities [5]