华泰证券今日早参-20250711

Macro Overview - In early July, global trade shows resilience, with US imports and China's exports maintaining strength, although sustainability is in question [2][4] - Manufacturing recovery continues globally, while inflation expectations in financial markets are rising despite a slight decrease in retail prices in late June [2] - Corporate confidence is weakened due to tariff uncertainties, leading to a decline in capital expenditure expectations [2] Industry Insights - The macroeconomic model indicates a recovery in the overall industry prosperity index in June, with a slowdown in the decline of non-financial industry prosperity [2] - Key sectors to focus on include small metals, PCB, storage, wind power, insurance, thermal power, infrastructure, and certain consumer goods, as well as pharmaceuticals, military, gaming, and communication equipment/software driven by AI [2] - The steel, coal, and some chemical products sectors are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and signs of a bottoming cycle, with valuations already reflecting downward expectations [2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate financing data shows a continued improvement trend in 1H25, supported by special bonds and a shift from debt extension to debt reduction [7] - The recovery pace in core cities, particularly first-tier cities, is expected to continue, with recommendations for developers with strong credit, good cities, and solid products [7] Aviation Leasing - China Aircraft Leasing Group (BOCA) reported a slight increase in aircraft deliveries in 2Q25, with 13 aircraft delivered compared to 11 in 1Q25, while 14 aircraft were sold, reducing the owned fleet to 441 [9] - The improvement in upstream manufacturing capacity is a positive signal for potential rental income growth, although uncertainties remain regarding the Fed's interest rate decisions [9] E-commerce Sector - JD.com is expected to show steady growth in 2Q25, driven by the trade-in policy, although significant investments in the food delivery business may pressure short-term profits [10] - Alibaba's e-commerce business is projected to perform well, with a 22% expected growth in cloud revenue, but short-term profit impacts are anticipated due to strong investments in flash sales [12] Logistics and Delivery - Jitu Express reported a significant increase in parcel volume, with a 27% year-on-year growth in 1H25, driven by strong performance in Southeast Asia and China [14] - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the logistics sector due to its competitive advantages [14] Chemical Industry - Dongyue Group anticipates a 150% year-on-year increase in net profit for 25H1, benefiting from an upward trend in the refrigerant market [14]