光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 10, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.43% to 64,180 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 90 tons to 13,191 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. From May to June, the export of lithium salts from Chile was basically flat, and the import of lithium carbonate in July is expected to change little month - on - month. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short - term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 10. In the future, attention should be paid to the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton. In the long run, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is high. Short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures price: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.43% to 64,180 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged at 57,420 yuan/ton [3]. - Warehouse receipt inventory: It decreased by 90 tons to 13,191 tons [3]. - Supply: July output is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and weekly output increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from spodumene and mica. The import in July is expected to change little month - on - month [3]. - Demand: The production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons [3]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term price increase is stimulated by various factors, but attention should be paid to the 65,000 yuan/ton pressure level. In the long run, there is hedging pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. The price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan/ton to 64,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 320 yuan/ton to 64,380 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone increased to varying degrees [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 63,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,050 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged at 57,420 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) decreased by 0.05 dollars/kg to 8 dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 51,050 yuan/ton [5]. - Price difference: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 350 yuan/ton to - 6,230 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials increased slightly [5]. - Battery: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore price: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][9] - Lithium and lithium salt price: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - Price difference: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [22][26] - Lithium battery price: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [34][37] - Production cost: Charts show the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]