光大期货软商品日报（2025年7月11日）-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.03% to 67.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.69% to 13,865 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 4,373 lots to 551,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,196 yuan per ton, also up 12 yuan. The macro - level disturbance in the international market is limited, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates between 97 - 98, with no directional drive for U.S. cotton. The market is waiting for the USDA July report, and there is an expectation of an increase in global cotton production including that of the U.S. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the 13,900 yuan per ton mark, and its center of gravity is rising. Low imports and low inventories are the main supports, and positions are gradually increasing. Market sentiment is boosting the cotton price. In the future, a bumper harvest of new cotton is likely, and there is no concern about cotton shortage. The expectation of significant improvement in the demand side is weak. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may still break through upwards, but considering the future supply - demand pattern, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies can be considered at high prices [2]. - For sugar, the Philippine Sugar Regulatory Authority approved the import of 424,000 tons of reserve sugar from July to November 2025. The spot prices of sugar in some regions were adjusted upwards. Brazilian sugar maintains a high sugar - making ratio, but the output is lower year - on - year due to the quality of sugarcane, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Affected by the market sentiment rebound, sugar prices are also boosted. The short - term sugar price is seen as a rebound. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy out - of - the - money put options and patiently wait for the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,331 yuan, down 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,196 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 175 yuan, up 11 yuan; the main contract basis is 285 yuan, down 11 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On July 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,882, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, with 244 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 10, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,175 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,229 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,155 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On July 10, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 48.6, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 33.5, unchanged [4]. - On July 10, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [4]. - On July 10, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 22,934, a decrease of 53 from the previous trading day, with 106 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar [7][15][18]