甲醇：港口累库，价格承压

Report Title - Methanol: Port Inventory Accumulation, Price Under Pressure - 20250711 [1] Core Viewpoint - The price of methanol is under pressure due to factors such as port inventory accumulation, weak downstream demand, and limited cost support [3][4] Summary by Content Price - The spot price of methanol at ports has declined, with Jiangsu's price ranging from 2370 to 2480 yuan/ton and Guangdong's from 2390 to 2470 yuan/ton. The inland market shows a weak and volatile trend, with the price in the northern line of Ordos ranging from 1963 to 2010 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2225 to 2265 yuan/ton [3] Supply - The domestic methanol production this week reached 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% decline from the previous week. There were new maintenance devices and some devices resumed operation. In terms of port inventory, the inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons [3] Downstream Demand - Methanol downstream demand showed a differentiated trend this week. The overall operation rate of olefins slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 5.19%, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid decreased slightly, the operation rates of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased, and the MTBE load increased. In the next period, the capacity utilization rates of olefins, acetic acid, chlorides, and MTBE are expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde is expected to decline, and dimethyl ether will remain basically the same [4] Market Outlook - On the supply side, the overall supply may increase slightly, and port inventory may accumulate, putting pressure on prices. On the demand side, MTO demand will increase slightly, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices in the acetic acid field. Other traditional downstream demands have limited fluctuations. On the cost side, the coal market is consolidating horizontally, and gas - based methanol is continuously losing money [4]