上海市国资委党委召开中心组学习会点评：稳定币、RWA代币化拓宽券商业务空间，首推国泰海通

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for growth driven by the integration of traditional and cryptocurrency trading services [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of virtual asset trading services for Guotai Junan International, marking it as the only Chinese brokerage firm authorized to provide such services, which is expected to enhance its business model [2]. - The integration of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is noted as a significant event, being the largest A+H share merger in China's capital market history, resulting in a nearly doubled market capitalization from 154.5 billion RMB to 318.9 billion RMB [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of brokerage firms' roles as intermediaries in trading due to the evolving regulatory framework for stablecoins and RWA tokenization, which could lead to expanded business opportunities in derivatives and asset management [2]. Summary by Sections Market Development - The report discusses the collaborative development of the Hong Kong and Shanghai international financial centers, which is expected to drive innovation in brokerage business models [2]. - The regulatory framework for stablecoins in Hong Kong is gradually taking shape, which is anticipated to benefit brokerage firms [2]. Company Performance - Guotai Junan's market share in equity financing underwriting reached 122.6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, holding an 18% market share, indicating strong performance in the industry [2]. - The report projects a significant increase in Guotai Junan's net profit from 130.2 billion RMB in 2024 to 212.8 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 63% year-on-year growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends three investment lines: 1. Strong brokerage firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, including Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [2]. 2. Brokerages with significant earnings elasticity, such as Dongfang Securities A+H, East Money, and China Merchants Securities A+H [2]. 3. Firms with strong international business competitiveness, recommending China Galaxy A+H and CICC A+H [2].