中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and short in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short term [14][16][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations in the short term [18][19][20] Core Views - The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. The trading logic has shifted from industrial fundamentals to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [1][4][5] - For iron ore, the anti - involution policy has limited impact on the black industry, with short - term emotional trading [1][8][9] - Coke's fundamentals remain relatively stable, with short - term market sentiment improving [12][13] - Coking coal supply is expected to increase later, but short - term market sentiment is positive [16][17] - Ferroalloys' short - term prices are dominated by market sentiment, with potential for price increases due to cost factors [19][20] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory decreased slightly, and it shows obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production dropped below 2.4 million tons but remained at a high level [1][4] - Market: The trading logic has shifted, and the market is bullish under the background of basis repair, with a price range of [3120, 3160] [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market: Driven by strong macro - sentiment and some regional production restriction news, it is bullish, with a price range of [3260, 3300] [1][5] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Hot metal production is expected to decline slowly. Supply shipments have ended, but arrivals are increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral [1][8] - Market: Short - term emotional trading is strong. Participate within the range in the short term and short in the medium term, with a price range of [750, 780] [1][8][9] Coke - Supply - demand: Independent coking enterprise production has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise production remains high. Hot metal production is at a high level, ensuring raw material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level [1][12] - Market: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic production has been stable recently, lower than the same period last year. Some shut - down mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month but remained high, and spot trading has improved [1][16] - Market: Market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish in the short term, with a price range of [890, 920] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased last week, but inventory pressure is still obvious. The cost of ore provides strong support at the bottom. Although hot metal production is high, actual demand may decline in the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations. Pay attention to the 6000 yuan/ton mark, with a price range of [5710 - 5905] [1][19][20] Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased, and the cost provides weak support. Prices may rise in the coal consumption peak season from July to August, but factory inventory is high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [5480 - 5670] [1][19][20]