Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:08Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market declined. The market was constrained by weak terminal demand, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall production of methanol decreased slightly, and enterprise and port inventories changed. The olefin industry's overall operation increased slightly this week and may continue to rise next week [8] - Market outlook: The domestic methanol output will continue to decline slightly. The port methanol inventory may accumulate slightly, and the olefin industry's operating rate may continue to increase slightly [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.21% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of July 11, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 73 [16] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 10, there were 8720 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 65 compared to last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of July 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1990 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 390 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from last week [29] - Foreign price: As of July 10, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 277 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 58 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton from last week [35] - Basis: As of July 11, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 10 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week [39] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas price: As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] Industry - Production and utilization rate: As of July 10, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89% [46] - Inventory: As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 356,900 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [49] - Import: In May 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 10, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton from last week [53] Downstream - Operating rate: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [56] - Profit: As of July 11, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 841 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.7 yuan/ton from last week [60]