宏观策略周报：6月份国内CPI同比由降转涨，央行连续第8个月增持黄金-20250711

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a four-month decline, primarily due to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices[9] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month[9] - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industry prices stabilizing, influenced by seasonal declines in raw material manufacturing[12] Market Trends - The major domestic indices showed mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.8% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.4% over the past week[20] - The trading volume in the two markets is projected to reach 5,000 billion yuan by March 2025, indicating a steady increase in market activity[27] Commodity Insights - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and anticipated continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance inflation expectations[17] - Copper prices are supported by strong demand growth exceeding 10% in the first half of the year, with supply growth expected to decline to below 1% for the year[19]