Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market Drivers: In the short - term, the precious metals market is driven by policy expectations and risk - aversion sentiment. The progress of tariff negotiations and the Fed's policy path are key variables. In the medium - to long - term, the supporting logic for precious metals remains unchanged due to factors like fiscal deficit monetization risks in the US [8]. - Gold Outlook: Short - term, gold may see increased safe - haven demand if tariff agreements are not reached by August 1st; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate. The Fed's policy and real interest rates will dominate price movements. Long - term, factors such as the US fiscal deficit and dollar credit risks support gold [8]. - Silver Outlook: Silver has been strong recently, supported by long - term supply - demand tightness. However, there is short - term callback pressure due to uncertain inflation prospects and reduced speculative long positions [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: Gold prices fluctuated this week. Threats of new tariffs by Trump initially pushed up gold, but the rebound of the dollar and rising US Treasury yields limited the upside. Later, improved economic data and profit - taking by some long - positions pressured gold. The Fed's mixed signals also increased price volatility. Silver has been relatively strong, but there is short - term callback pressure [8]. - Fund Flows: Global gold ETFs added $38 billion in the first half of the year, and central bank gold purchases continued. However, CFTC speculative net long positions declined, indicating intensified short - term capital games [8]. - Outlook: Short - term, the market is driven by policy and risk - aversion. Medium - to long - term, the supporting factors for precious metals remain [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of July 11, 2025, COMEX silver rose 2.51% to $38.015 per ounce, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.07% to 9040 yuan per kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to $3343.7 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures fell 0.25% to 773.56 yuan per gram [11]. - ETF Holdings: As of July 10, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings increased 0.3% to 14,890 tons, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased 0.1% to 948.81 tons [16]. - COMEX Positions: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold total positions rose 0.62% and net positions rose 3.58%. COMEX silver total positions fell 6.33% and net positions rose 0.72% [21]. - CFTC Positions: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1% and non - commercial short positions decreased 7.24% [26]. - Basis: As of July 10, 2025, the gold basis rose 25.68% to - 4.08 yuan per gram, and the silver basis rose 41.18% to - 20 yuan per kilogram [29]. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories increased [34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Silver Industry: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46%, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54%. In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits increased by 11.5% [40][45]. - Silver Supply - Demand: In 2024, silver industrial demand rose 4%, coin and bar demand fell 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. Total demand fell 3%. Supply increased 2%, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% [51][55]. - Gold Industry: As of July 10, 2025, gold recycling and jewelry prices decreased slightly [61]. - Gold Supply - Demand: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand increased, investment demand increased by 71.93%, jewelry demand decreased by 10.47%, and total demand increased by 7.12% [67]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: This week, the US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was flat, the 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to rise. The 10 - year break - even inflation rate in the US declined slightly [69][74][77]. - Central Bank Actions: In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons for the eighth consecutive month [81].