Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:33Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a situation of increasing supply and demand. Although industrial inventories are accumulating, they remain at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a weekly change of - 1.62% and an amplitude of 2.52%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 78,430 yuan/ton [4] - International Situation: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts, with three main camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [4] - Domestic Situation: The Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [4] - Fundamentals: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to operate in the negative range, and port inventories decreased. The supply of concentrates is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the cost - side support for copper prices remains. On the supply side, the price of by - product sulfuric acid is favorable, and the resumption of some smelters after environmental inspections and the ramping - up of new production capacity have increased production willingness and actual output. On the demand side, the US plan to impose large - scale tariffs on copper has adjusted the international trade flow of copper. The decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream inventory building in China, and domestic macro - policies have strengthened consumption expectations [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Market: As of July 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 515 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 78,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 178,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 37,056 lots. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [10][13] - Spot Market: As of July 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [13] - Options Market: As of July 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.5950, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0954 [27] - Premium and Position: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,607 lots, a decrease of 10,625 lots from last week [22] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - Prices and Fees: The quotes of upstream copper mines weakened, and the processing fees of blister copper remained flat [28] - Imports and Spreads: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 0.5098 million tons from April, a decline of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.59%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,022.99 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 693.43 yuan/ton [34] - Production and Inventory: As of April 2025, the monthly global output of copper concentrates was 1,909 thousand tons, a decrease of 59 thousand tons from March, a decline of 3%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79.2%, unchanged from March. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous period [39] Supply - Side - Refined Copper Production: As of May 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April and a year - on - year increase of 15.15%. As of April 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,365 thousand tons, a decrease of 55 thousand tons from March, a decline of 2.27%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [41] - Refined Copper Imports: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 219.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 231.23 yuan/ton [49][50] - Inventory: As of the latest data, the total inventory of LME increased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the total inventory of COMEX increased by 9,687 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [53] Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of May 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from April, an increase of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 15.69% [59] - Applications: As of May 2025, the cumulative investment completion in power grids and power sources increased by 19.8% and 0.39% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment in real estate development was 362.3384 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% and a month - on - month increase of 30.67%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 193.46 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 28.21% [65][71] Overall - Global Supply - Demand: As of April 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of - 50 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 193,600 tons [76]