中辉有色观点-20250711
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:32
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The dual - easing policy and central bank gold purchases support the price, with a long - term bullish outlook due to uncertainties [1][2][3]. - Silver is likely to experience a strong - level oscillation. The dual - easing environment supports silver demand, but it is significantly influenced by the prices of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is predicted to oscillate. In the short term, there may be a correction due to demand verification risks, but in the long run, it is still favored as a strategic resource [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short term, it will test the previous high, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand, presenting short - selling opportunities [1][7][8]. - Lead is under pressure. Supply increases in July, and weak downstream consumption leads to inventory accumulation and price rebound pressure [1]. - Tin is facing pressure on its rebound. Supply has not fully recovered, but consumption has entered the off - season, and inventory has been accumulating [1]. - Aluminum is expected to rebound and then decline. The off - season is approaching, and demand is weakening, while production capacity remains high [1][9][10]. - Nickel is under pressure on its rebound. Inventory pressure persists, and downstream consumption is in the off - season [1][11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to rebound. Cost support exists, but high inventory restricts the upward space [1]. - Polysilicon is likely to trade in a high - level range. Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support its strength, but prices are high and volatile [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and it will mainly trade in a range, with attention on the 65,000 resistance [1][13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Market Review: Tariff risks have temporarily subsided. Monetary easing and central bank gold purchases support the price [2]. - Basic Logic: Most Fed officials support interest rate cuts. Russia has increased its gold holdings, and the long - term trend of dual - easing and global order reshaping supports the long - term bullish view of gold [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may experience short - term adjustments, but the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and long - term investment opportunities can be considered [4]. Silver - Market Review: Not explicitly stated, but it is influenced by the dual - easing environment and the prices of other metals [1]. - Basic Logic: The dual - easing policy supports silver demand, and high tariffs increase friction costs for some products [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the pressure at the previous high and control positions, with a price range of [8800 - 9075] [1]. Copper - Market Review: US copper has been trading in a high - level range, while LME copper and SHFE copper have stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and electrolytic copper production has increased. Global visible inventory is at a low level, but high prices suppress demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, beware of demand verification risks, but expect limited downside. Buy on dips after corrections. In the long term, be optimistic about copper due to the tight global copper mine supply [6]. Zinc - Market Review: SHFE zinc has oscillated and rebounded, testing the previous high [7]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc mines is abundant, and processing fees are rebounding. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc may test the previous high due to various factors, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand. Look for short - selling opportunities, with a price range of [22000 - 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2700 - 2800] for LME zinc [8]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has rebounded and then declined [9]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity remains high, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and short - term supply is tight due to some enterprise maintenance [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - selling opportunities for SHFE aluminum on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel has also declined [11]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and domestic production may decline. Nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel production cuts have eased inventory pressure, but consumption is still weak in the off - season [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - selling opportunities for nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cut trends, with a price range of [118000 - 122000] for nickel [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 has slightly reduced positions and traded weakly in a range [13]. - Industrial Logic: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and inventory is at a new high. Downstream demand shows an off - season non - weak phenomenon, but supply changes are in line with expectations [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade in a high - level range in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance, with a price range of [63600 - 64600] [14].