Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:32Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].