通信行业双周报（2025、6、27-2025、7、10）：AI带来DWDM流量增长-20250711

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting it to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][45]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is experiencing growth driven by AI and emerging technologies, leading to increased demand for bandwidth and lower latency. This is pushing the optical network towards greater capacity and efficiency [3][41]. - The report highlights that the communication sector is in a period of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy [3][41]. - The demand for DWDM bandwidth is expected to surge due to DCI bandwidth overflow, indicating a significant opportunity for companies involved in cloud and infrastructure development [3][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The communication sector index rose by 3.91% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [11][12]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has increased by 9.61%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 7.70 percentage points [11][12]. 2. Industry News - Dell'Oro predicts that the AI RAN market will exceed $10 billion by 2029, accounting for about one-third of the overall RAN market [16]. - IoT Analytics reports a 23% year-on-year increase in cellular IoT module shipments in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery from inventory adjustments [20]. - LightCounting notes that AI is driving an increase in DWDM traffic, necessitating upgrades in telecom networks to support new AI applications [21]. 3. Company Announcements - 移远通信 (Quectel) expects a 121% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of approximately 463 million yuan [23]. - 华测导航 (Huace Navigation) anticipates a net profit growth of 27.37% to 33.34% for the first half of 2025, driven by rapid development in geospatial information and robotics [24]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of May 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.807 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.71% [26]. - The internet broadband access user base was about 682 million, reflecting a 5.05% year-on-year growth [29]. - The length of optical cable lines reached approximately 72.88 million kilometers by Q4 2024, a 13.31% increase year-on-year [30]. 5. Communication Sector Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and performance certainty," highlighting potential investment opportunities in firms like 中国电信 (China Telecom), 烽火通信 (FiberHome), and 长飞光纤 (Yangtze Optical) [41][42].