芳烃下游开?连续第?周?幅下滑，基差继续?弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak pattern in the industrial chain persists, especially in the aromatic hydrocarbon chain. The start - up rates of polyester, texturing, weaving, and downstream of styrene have declined significantly. After a short "catch - up rise" of chemicals relative to crude oil, the market may gradually recognize the downturn in the real - economy industries [2] - OPEC+ is considering a production increase in September, and will complete a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase from April to September, then may pause further production hikes. Global crude oil supply is gradually increasing [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Viewpoint: OPEC+ considering a September production increase, crude oil will continue to oscillate and consolidate. The market is worried about the impact of the trade war on the global economy. Macro - economic conditions are still relatively positive, but the futures price needs to see more inventory accumulation to break the oscillation pattern [7] Asphalt - Viewpoint: Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. With OPEC+ increasing production, heavy - oil supply is rising, and demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on prices [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The price difference between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil may maintain a low - valuation operation due to increasing supply and falling demand [3][12] LPG - Viewpoint: Cost - side support is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11] PX - Viewpoint: With the general rise of commodities, PX rebounds. The tight - balance pattern continues, but there is a downward trend in absolute prices due to poor terminal market support [15] PTA - Viewpoint: Following the general rise of commodities, PTA moves upward. However, it is expected to decline in the short term due to factors such as weakening crude oil prices and falling downstream demand [16] Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The pure benzene futures price rises due to positive news from downstream, positive macro - sentiment, and possible capital - driven behavior. The situation from July to August is favorable, but high inventories may suppress the rebound [17] Styrene - Viewpoint: Styrene prices rise due to the rebound of market sentiment and short - squeezing in the downstream. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand fundamentals [18] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: With the decline in downstream start - up rates and the increase in its own start - up rate, EG will oscillate in the short term and may trend downward in the long term [19] Short Fibers - Viewpoint: The start - up rate remains stable weekly, and short - fiber prices follow the fluctuations of raw materials. Concerns exist about the continuous sharp decline in terminal weaving start - up rates [20] Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: The start - up rate continues to decline, and the processing fee remains stable. The absolute price follows the fluctuations of raw materials [21] Methanol - Viewpoint: With limited spot support, methanol will oscillate. Positive market sentiment and stable supply and demand in the coal market are the main factors [24] Urea - Viewpoint: Supported by exports, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment, and supply is affected by high - temperature maintenance [25] LLDPE (Plastic) - Viewpoint: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, plastics will oscillate. However, the fundamental situation is still under pressure, with high supply and low demand [28] PP - Viewpoint: Driven by market sentiment, PP will oscillate in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively weak [29] PVC - Viewpoint: With strong expectations but weak reality, PVC will oscillate. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season [32] Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Caustic soda is expected to operate strongly. Market sentiment is positive, and low inventory and low liquid chlorine prices are the main supports [34] Group 4: Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.17 with a - 0.05 change, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 50 with a 4 change [35] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, asphalt's basis is 196 with a - 16 change and 82300 warehouse receipts [36] - Inter - Variety Spreads: Different inter - variety spreads have their own values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 300 with a - 32 change [38]