中辉期货能化观点-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Weak Outlook: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3] - Rebound with Upside Potential: PVC, glass, soda ash, caustic soda [1][2] - Bullish Rebound: L, PP [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ is increasing production, and demand growth is slower than supply growth. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][5][6]. - LPG: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. The market is weak. Short - term short positions are recommended [1][7][9]. - L: Supply and demand are both weak. There is a short - term rebound, but a long - term decline is expected. Sell - hedging can be considered [1][11]. - PP: The market sentiment is positive, and export margins are improving. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure exists. Consider 9 - 1 positive spreads [1][13]. - PVC: Macroeconomic sentiment drives the market. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure may limit the upside. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [1][16]. - PX: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease. There is a short - term correction. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][18]. - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][21]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to be loose, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][23]. - Glass: Policy expectations are positive. There is a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - Soda Ash: High supply and high inventory. The rebound is limited. Consider short - term short positions [2][30]. - Caustic Soda: There is a short - term rebound due to inventory reduction and subsidy. The price center is moving up [2][33]. - Methanol: Supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. Hold existing short positions and add short on rebounds [3][35]. - Urea: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. - Asphalt: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. Consider short - term short positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.39%, Brent dropped 2.21%, and SC rose 0.89% [4]. - Basic Logic: OPEC+ is increasing production in August. The current consumption season and Saudi's price increase provide some support, but supply pressure is rising. US crude inventory increased by 710 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 270 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 82.5 million barrels [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, supply is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. SC is expected to trade between 500 - 520 [6]. LPG - Market Performance: On July 10, the PG main contract closed at 4199 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7]. - Basic Logic: The upstream oil price is the main factor. Although there is short - term support, the subsequent OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure. PDH device profit decreased, and inventory increased [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. PG is expected to trade between 4130 - 4230 [9]. L - Basic Logic: The domestic polyethylene market is in a weak situation. Although the oil price may rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season. New devices are expected to be put into production in July - August, and the long - term outlook is weak. There is a short - term rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered [11]. PP - Market Performance: PP futures prices rose slightly, and the export margin improved. The main contract basis weakened, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. - Basic Logic: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure exists. There is a short - term rebound, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be considered [13]. PVC - Market Performance: PVC futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The inventory increased, and the cost support decreased [16]. - Basic Logic: The production is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. There is a short - term rebound, and a short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [16]. PX - Market Performance: On July 4, the PX spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6672 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was 448 yuan/ton [17]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, and the demand from PTA is weakening. The supply - demand balance is expected to ease. PXN is not low, and the basis is high. Look for high - shorting opportunities [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX is expected to trade between 6670 - 6790 [19]. PTA - Market Performance: On July 4, the PTA spot price in East China was 4835 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was 125 yuan/ton [20]. - Basic Logic: The supply is expected to increase with new device launches. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Inventory is decreasing, but the overall situation is neutral. Look for high - shorting opportunities [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: TA is expected to trade between 4650 - 4750 [21]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On July 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4361 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4277 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was 84 yuan/ton [22]. - Basic Logic: The supply is expected to be loose with more device restarts and expected increase in arrivals. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Low inventory provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG is expected to trade between 4280 - 4330 [24]. Glass - Market Performance: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rose slightly. The basis narrowed, and the inventory decreased slightly [26]. - Basic Logic: The policy is expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Although there is short - term constraint, the price may move up slightly. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG is expected to trade between 1070 - 1100 [27]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The heavy - soda spot price increased, and the futures price rose. The main contract basis decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - Basic Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. Although the policy provides some support, the long - term situation is still weak. A wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA is expected to trade between 1215 - 1245 [30]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The spot price of caustic soda increased in some areas, and the futures price center moved up. The basis strengthened, and the inventory decreased [32]. - Basic Logic: The supply is under pressure, but the demand from alumina is recovering. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. Pay attention to the rebound driven by inventory reduction [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: SH is expected to trade between 2480 - 2530 [33]. Methanol - Market Performance: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China was 2446 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2399 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the inventory increased [34]. - Basic Logic: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic device operation rate is high. The demand from MTO is weakening, and the traditional demand is entering the off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. Short positions are recommended [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA is expected to trade between 2365 - 2405 [35]. Urea - Basic Logic: The supply is increasing as the maintenance devices resume production. The demand from industry and agriculture is weak, but the fertilizer export is growing. The cost provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost of asphalt is falling due to the decline in oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the weather. Short positions are recommended [3].