Guoxin Securities·2025-07-11 09:46Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive sector, highlighting the potential for improved industry sentiment driven by a surge in new product launches and upcoming earnings reports [1][5] - The domestic passenger car market saw retail sales of 2.084 million units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth opportunities in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicle trends, as well as the rise of domestic brands [12][13] Sales Tracking - In June 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7% and a month-on-month growth of 8.2% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 10.901 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - The report notes that the inventory warning index for automotive dealers in May 2025 was at 52.7%, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's sentiment [2] Market Performance - The automotive sector index experienced a slight decline of 0.13% in June 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.9% [2] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 28.88%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.78% increase [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities presented by incremental components in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [12][19] - Recommended companies include Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like KOBOT, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for intelligent components [3][19] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the domestic automotive market will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years, with new energy vehicle sales projected to reach 1.556 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [13][22] - The transition towards electric and intelligent vehicles is expected to create structural development opportunities within the industry, as traditional automotive manufacturers adapt to new technologies [12][13] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Leap Motor is projected to have an EPS of -0.05 in 2025, with a PE ratio of -1200, while Geely is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.36 with a PE ratio of 12 [4] - JAC Motors is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.11 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 380, indicating a strong growth potential [4] New Energy Vehicle Projections - The report predicts that new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow, with expectations of 1.556 million units sold in 2025, representing a 28% increase from the previous year [18][22] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 38% in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in the following years [17][22]