沥青周度报告-20250711

1. Report Summary - OPEC+ expanded production more than expected, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and Kazakhstan planned to maintain oil production at the current level until the end of the year [6][7] - As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period; as of July 11, the weekly output was 566,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 763,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,000 tons; the social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week [8] - It was recommended to focus on the range of 3,550 - 3,700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [8] - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed signs of weakening. The supply side saw an increase in weekly output and operating rate, and the demand side had a slight increase in shipments. Refinery shipments were poor, leading to an increase in factory inventory, while social inventory decreased slightly. With the end of rainfall in the south, downstream demand recovered, but social inventory was still high [8] - OPEC+ continued to increase production this week, with limited impact. Oil prices fluctuated strongly with the expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Crude oil lacked obvious drivers, and it was expected that short - term WTI oil prices would continue to fluctuate strongly. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market [8] 2. Multi - empty Focus - The long factors for asphalt were marginal improvement in supply and demand and low inventory; the short factors were the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Palestine and high supply [11] 3. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.1 Tariff Policy - The US postponed the effective date of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1 - The US would impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products from August 1, 2025 - Trump announced a new round of tariff notices, including a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products - The US would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from August 1, 2025, and a 50% tariff on imported copper from the same date [12] 3.2 Fed Policy - The Fed's internal differences were significant. At the June meeting, officials agreed to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%. Some officials thought tariff policies would cause a one - time price increase, while most believed they might have a more lasting impact on inflation [13] - Goldman Sachs expected the Fed not to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, and in March and June 2026 [13] 3.3 Supply Analysis - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase in production of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ had increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. The market had basically priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of this round was relatively limited [14] 4. Data Analysis 4.1 Supply - As of July 11, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 566,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week. Some refineries resumed production this week, and the weekly output had the potential to increase seasonally in the third quarter [16] - As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Northwest, and Southwest regions increased significantly. The increase was due to the repair of asphalt cracking spreads and a decrease in maintenance plans [26] 4.2 Demand - As of July 11, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 453,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume was at a high level this year. The end of rainfall in the south drove demand recovery [29] - As of July 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.38%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. Most regions saw an increase in capacity utilization, except for slight declines in East China, Shandong, and the Northwest [31] 4.3 Import and Export - In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03% [38] - In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [47] 4.4 Inventory - As of July 11, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 763,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Northeast region increased significantly. The increase in factory inventory was due to poor refinery shipments and reduced trader purchasing willingness [56] - As of July 11, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.312 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons. The inventory in North China, Shandong, and Southwest regions increased slightly. The decrease in social inventory was due to the recovery of terminal demand and poor inventory transfer [63] 4.5 Spread - As of July 11, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 477.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.5 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of July 9, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 53.05, and as of July 10, the asphalt basis was 108 yuan/ton. The decline in asphalt cracking spreads was due to the weakening of asphalt fundamentals this week [70] 5. Future Outlook - This week, the asphalt fundamentals weakened. The supply side saw an increase in production and operating rate, and the demand side had a slight increase in shipments. Refinery shipments were poor, leading to an increase in factory inventory, while social inventory decreased slightly. With the end of rainfall in the south, downstream demand recovered, but social inventory was still high - OPEC+ continued to increase production, with limited impact. Oil prices fluctuated strongly with the expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Crude oil lacked obvious drivers, and short - term WTI oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations would dominate the market - It was recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production schedules and terminal project start - up progress, and focus on the range of 3,550 - 3,700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [72]