黑色金属日报-20250711

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report assigns a one-star rating to all commodities, indicating a bullish or bearish bias but limited trading operability [1]. Group 2: Steel Analysis - Today, the steel futures market showed a volatile upward trend. This week, both the apparent demand and production of rebar declined slightly, while inventory continued to decrease slowly. The demand for hot-rolled coils continued to decline, and production also decreased, with inventory gradually accumulating. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market faced limited negative feedback pressure. It is necessary to focus on the demand absorption capacity during the off-season. In terms of downstream industries, infrastructure recovery lacked sustainability, real estate sales hovered at a low level, and indicators such as investment and new construction continued to decline significantly. The manufacturing industry as a whole remained resilient. The "anti-involution" concept continued to dominate the market trend, with optimistic market sentiment. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain strong, with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and international policies [2]. Group 3: Iron Ore Analysis - Today, the iron ore futures market showed a strong and volatile trend. On the supply side, global shipments dropped significantly after the end-of-quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port clearance remained high. This week, port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel weakened slightly during the off-season, and steel mills maintained decent profitability, yet there was still some pressure to reduce molten iron production. At the macro level, the market had high expectations for an important meeting next week, and with reduced external trade uncertainties, market sentiment for long positions improved. In the short term, with optimistic market sentiment, iron ore will maintain a strong trend. However, the current price already reflects some optimistic expectations, so attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility in the future [3]. Group 4: Coke Analysis - Today, the coke futures market trended upward. Coking plants expect to raise prices next week, with meager profits, and daily coking production has continued to decline from its annual high. The overall coke inventory remained largely unchanged, while traders' willingness to purchase increased. Overall, the supply of carbon elements remained relatively abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level during the off-season. The "anti-involution" concept currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the price trend mainly follows that of steel. In the short term, it may continue to rise [4]. Group 5: Coking Coal Analysis - Today, the coking coal futures market trended upward. The production of coking coal mines continued to recover, with previously shut-down mines resuming production. The spot auction market improved, with transaction prices rising significantly, and terminal inventories increasing. The total coking coal inventory decreased month-on-month, with a significant drop in production-side inventory. In the short term, inventory is likely to continue decreasing. Overall, the supply of carbon elements remained relatively abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level during the off-season. The "anti-involution" concept currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium, and the price trend mainly follows that of steel. In the short term, it may continue to rise [6]. Group 6: Silicon Manganese Analysis - Today, the silicon manganese futures market trended upward. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory levels decreased. However, weekly production began to recover, and on-balance inventory started to increase. In the medium to long term, manganese ore inventory increased steadily. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices. Jupiter announced its August 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36.5% South African semi-carbonate lump at $3.9 per ton-degree, up from the previous offer of $3.85 in June. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of rebar, with limited price increases. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. Group 7: Silicon Iron Analysis - Today, the silicon iron futures market trended significantly upward. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained above 239. Export demand remained around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand remained stable at a high level. Overall, demand was decent. The supply of silicon iron continued to decline, market transactions were average, and on-balance inventory continued to decrease. However, production-side inventory started to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory. Silicon iron mainly follows the trend of rebar, with limited price increases. It is expected that the price will fluctuate [8].