Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - Supply and demand balance: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - Price and basis: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - Smelter operating rate: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - Import data: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - Production data: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - Automobile industry data: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - Solder industry data: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - Inventory data: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]
锡周报报告-20250711
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-07-11 10:02