原油周度报告-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, driven by the expected improvement in the supply - demand structure. The market has basically priced in OPEC+ production increases, and the actual increase is far lower than planned. Meanwhile, the traditional gasoline consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere in the third quarter has led to rising refinery operating rates and increased crude oil consumption. The "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil will support the strengthening of near - month contracts, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut will repair market risk appetite. It is expected that oil prices will continue the oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [8][52] - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $64 - 69 per barrel [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus: OPEC+ unexpectedly expanded production increases, with a planned 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level until the end of the year [7] - Key data: As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels (previous value - 1.493 million barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels (expected - 2.071 million barrels, previous value 3.845 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels (previous value 239,000 barrels) [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Expected demand improvement, geopolitical uncertainty [12] - Bearish factors: Expectation of OPEC+ continued production increase, uncertainty of tariff policy [12] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs to August 1. It will impose a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean products from August 1, 2025, and a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from the same date. It will also impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1, 2025 [13] - The Fed's internal differences are significant, and the pace of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Most officials believe that tariff policies may have a more lasting impact on inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, and in March and June 2026 [14] - OPEC maintained the expected growth of global crude oil demand and economic growth, and lowered the forecast of US and other non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of oil demand growth, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [15] 3.4 Data Analysis Supply - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The market has basically priced in the increase, and the impact is relatively limited [16] - As of the week ending July 4, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, and is expected to remain low due to profit pressure [18] - As of the week ending July 4, the total number of US oil rigs was 425, a decrease of 7 from the previous period. The number of rigs has been declining since April and is expected to remain low [20] Demand - As of the week ending July 4, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 1.415 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline production implied demand increased by 3.7782 million barrels per day week - on - week, indicating a temporary weakening of crude oil consumption and a continued improvement in refined oil consumption [27] - As of the week ending July 4, the US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable [28] - As of July 10, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 81.47%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 58.02%, up 0.77 percentage points. Major refineries are expected to maintain an upward trend, while local refineries are expected to remain stable [34] - As of July 11, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 1,020.78 yuan/ton, down 112.75 yuan/ton from the previous period, and that of local independent refineries was 365.34 yuan/ton, down 70.54 yuan/ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of major refineries [38] Inventory - As of the week ending July 4, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels. Crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and strategic inventory is being replenished. It is expected to remain low [43] - As of the week ending July 4, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory as of the week ending June 6 was 229.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2.658 million barrels from the previous period [48] Crack Spread - As of July 9, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.16 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week decline but ending the previous downward trend, reflecting the recovery of US gasoline consumption [49] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - The short - term oil price is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening trend, supported by the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamental pattern of crude oil and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [52]