Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].
冠通研究：市场情绪放缓
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-11 10:28