国投期货农产品日报-20250711

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various agricultural products are as follows: soybean has a certain rating (not clearly defined in a general way), soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn are rated with a certain star indication; live pigs are rated ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a bearish trend); eggs are rated ★★★ (indicating a more distinct bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, considering factors such as weather, policies, supply - demand relationships, and trade situations, and provides corresponding market trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuates slightly, and the spot price is stable. Short - term weather is favorable for soybean crops in the main producing areas. There were two - way trading on the policy side this week with good trading results. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of July 8, about 9% of the US soybean main producing areas were affected by drought. Future rainfall in the US soybean producing areas is expected to be above normal and temperatures slightly below normal, which is beneficial for crop growth. The domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Brazilian soybean premium has increased significantly, and the procurement progress of domestic oil mills for September shipments has reached 70%. The Dalian soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are strong, hitting a phased high, and soybean oil rebounds accordingly. This is mainly due to macro - economic expectations. Short - term attention should be paid to the weather in European and Black Sea sunflower seed producing areas. In the long term, the development of biodiesel supports vegetable oil prices, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - European rapeseed futures prices have stabilized after approaching the annual low. Canadian rapeseed prices are stronger than the European market due to changeable weather. The demand for Canadian rapeseed depends on trade negotiations. The net long position of funds in Canadian rapeseed is at a historical high. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in the peak demand season, but the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to rapeseed meal consumption. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - As of July 8, about 12% of the US corn main producing areas were affected by drought. The US corn may continue to look for a bottom. The Dalian corn futures are mainly in a weak and volatile state. The increase in supply in the circulation link has a great impact on the market, and the futures may continue to be weak and volatile [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have a small decline with reduced positions, and the spot price continues to fall. The basis between spot and futures has narrowed significantly, and the upward momentum of the futures is insufficient. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and there is downward pressure on prices in the medium term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging [8] Eggs - The egg futures prices fluctuate narrowly with reduced positions. Some far - month contracts rebound today. The spot price has increased in some provinces. The current spot market is at the turning point between the off - season and peak season, but the late - coming Mid - Autumn Festival this year may affect the price rise rhythm. The futures positions are at a high level, and there is a risk of increased volatility at the turning point. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]