Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]
【冠通研究】 PVC：震荡下行
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-11 10:48