冠通每日交易策略-20250711

Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].