国投期货软商品日报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, mainly for observation [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions for each commodity based on their supply, demand, and inventory conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, driven by the strong performance of bulk commodities. The cotton industry chain shows stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. Pure cotton yarn prices rose with raw materials but with weak momentum. Mainland spinning mills' operation rate continued to decline, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, buy on significant pullbacks [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data for the first half of June in the central - southern region was positive. Due to heavy rainfall, the sugarcane harvest was affected, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased significantly year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.1406 million tons, an increase of 614,400 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain volatile, and for now, take a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to enter the market. The inventory in cold storage decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate. The production estimate is relatively bearish. Operationally, maintain a bearish stance [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR futures prices declined slightly, and BR fluctuated. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the supply of synthetic rubber is decreasing. The downstream demand is recovering, and rubber inventory is increasing. Strategically, expect a rebound [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose. The spot price remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp valuation is low. For now, take a wait - and - see approach or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The supply of New Zealand logs in July increased month - on - month, and the demand improved. The national port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. However, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. For now, take a wait - and - see approach [7]