Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Alumina: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Polysilicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks, US interest rate cut expectations, and the "anti - involution" theme, which have different impacts on various metals [1][3] - Different metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly Summaries by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper futures closing down with fluctuations. Spot copper was reported at 78,720 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 50 yuan and a Guangdong copper discount of 30 yuan. The refined - scrap spread tightened to 860 yuan [1] - The market is concerned about Trump's tariff news. Given the domestic off - season and increased pressure from Trump's tariff remarks, the downward trend may expand, and short positions are recommended [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot discount slightly widening to 70 yuan. During the off - season, there is a negative feedback in the spot market, but the inventory accumulation is not significant. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a multi - year high, indicating a large market divergence [2] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is 19,600 yuan, and the delivery product shows a premium. If the price spread between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy expands, consider a long AD and short AL strategy [2] - The "anti - involution" theme in the over - supplied industry has driven up the alumina futures and spot prices, but the domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high, and the upside space may be limited [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory has continuously declined to 105,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spread has changed from a discount to a premium. The overseas market is strong, and the spot import loss has expanded to over 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic zinc exchange inventory has increased by 4,617 tons to 49,981 tons, and the position - to - warrant ratio of the 07 contract has dropped below 1. Traders are actively selling at high prices, while downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in weak spot trading and a weakening premium [3] - Despite positive capital flows due to US interest rate cut expectations and domestic "anti - involution," the supply - increase and demand - weakening expectation in the fundamentals remain unchanged, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly, and the market trading is active. The Jinchuan premium is 2,600 yuan, the imported nickel premium is 400 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 150 yuan [6] - The calming of the situation in Indonesia is the main pressure on the ore end. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened significantly. Inventories at all levels are sufficient, and there is no short - term spot support. It is advisable to try short positions with a light position [6] Tin - Shanghai tin has closed down with a reduction in positions, and the spot tin price is 266,700 yuan. The market is concerned about the repeated low - level state of LME tin inventory at 200 tons, and the overnight LME 0 - 3 month spot premium is 22 dollars [7] - The LME Hong Kong warehouse will start operating on July 15th. It is expected that there will be some inventory reduction in China this week. Hold the previous high - level short positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded with fluctuations, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is at a high level, but downstream confidence has increased, and the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong [8] - The time significance of the lithium carbonate rebound is greater than the space significance. The driving force brought by "anti - involution" is weaker than that of the silicon series. Observe the effectiveness of the resistance in the 65,000 - 66,500 yuan range [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have closed slightly higher at 8,415 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang 421 spot price has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton [9] - Downstream demand has improved marginally. In July, the polysilicon production is expected to break through the 90,000 - 100,000 - ton range in the first half of the year and approach 110,000 tons. The DMC production in June - July has increased significantly month - on - month after months of maintenance [9] - The social inventory decreased slightly last week. With the support of the polysilicon market sentiment and marginal improvement in demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures have closed with fluctuations at 41,330 yuan/ton, and some long positions have been reduced. The M - type re - feedstock price is stable at 46,000 yuan/ton, and the current spot trading is relatively limited [10] - Affected by the polysilicon sentiment, the silicon wafer price has risen significantly. The exchange will increase the margin next Monday, and the trading logic will gradually return to the fundamentals. The polysilicon warrant quantity is basically stable, and the upside hedging pressure is small. The price is expected to follow the spot and oscillate strongly [10]
有色金属日报-20250711
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-11 10:51