美国对铜加税“六问”始末

Report Core View - The US government plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper to boost domestic industrial self - sufficiency and rebuild the domestic supply of basic industrial raw materials [2]. - The tariff has limited long - term impact on the global copper supply - demand balance but affects short - term logistics and trade directions. The US may increase domestic copper production and recycling [3]. - The tariff news causes a divergence between US and London copper prices, and the US copper market may become more regionalized [5][6]. - The reasons for the rise in US copper prices in 2025 are different from those in 2024. In 2024, it was due to a squeeze - out situation, while in 2025, it is related to the expected implementation of tariffs [7]. - The transfer of copper inventory to the US may end after the tariff is implemented, and the global copper market may enter a volatile downward trend [8][11]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Trump's Purpose of Imposing Copper Tariffs - Trump aims to build a manufacturing internal cycle and increase the domestic production and supply ratio of basic industrial raw materials such as copper, steel, and aluminum [2]. 2. Impact on Global Copper Supply - Demand and Chile's Exports - In the long run, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. In the short term, it affects the logistics and trade direction before the tariff implementation. The US may increase domestic copper production and recycling [3]. - The tariff may reduce the US's imports of refined copper from most countries. Chile's exports to the US may be affected, but China is currently the largest importer of Chilean copper [4]. 3. Divergence between New York and London Copper Prices - Before the tariff implementation, the expectation of tariffs attracts global copper to the US, changing the distribution of global copper inventories. After the implementation, the US copper market may be separated from the global market [5][6]. 4. Comparison between 2024 and 2025 Copper Price Increases - In 2024, the rise in US copper prices was due to a squeeze - out situation driven by multiple factors. In 2025, it is related to the expected implementation of tariffs, with a different market structure [7]. 5. Copper Inventory Situation - Currently, LME copper inventory is 10.2 tons, and COMEX copper inventory is 19.95 tons. The transfer of inventory to the US may end after the tariff implementation [8]. 6. Future of New York Copper Prices and Impact on Domestic Copper - Whether New York copper prices can reach new highs depends on the implementation of exemption clauses. Domestic Shanghai copper will mainly track London copper prices [10]. - The copper market may enter a volatile downward trend, and domestic copper enterprises can handle risks through hedging [11].