25Q2E 业绩前瞻：火电业绩加速修复，水风光或承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the thermal power sector, indicating a potential improvement in performance due to market-oriented electricity pricing and a long-term favorable profitability trend [2][5]. Core Insights - In April-May 2025, the power and heating industry achieved a pre-tax profit of RMB 114.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [5]. - The report anticipates that the second half of 2025 may end the trend of declines seen in the power sector over the past two years, with thermal power expected to benefit from a narrowing electricity price decline and a larger drop in coal prices [2][5]. - The performance of hydropower companies may diverge slightly due to water inflow shortages, while new energy installations are expected to increase significantly [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The average electricity price in Guangdong for Q2 2025 was RMB 0.374/kWh, down RMB 0.046/kWh year-on-year, while the average coal price was RMB 633/ton, down RMB 214/ton year-on-year [2][5]. - National electricity generation for April and May was 449.1 billion kWh and 461.5 billion kWh, respectively, with thermal power growth returning to positive in May [2][5]. Hydropower - The Three Gorges outflow and inflow were 1.2 and 1.0 million cubic meters per second, down 12.6% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. - National hydropower generation for April and May was 78.6 billion kWh and 99.1 billion kWh, down 6.5% and 14.3% year-on-year [2][5]. New Energy - New installations for wind and solar power reached 32.12 million kW and 138.13 million kW, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 277.2% and 1072.0% [2][5]. - Wind power utilization hours were 374 hours, down 6 hours year-on-year, while solar power utilization hours were 234 hours, down 37 hours year-on-year [2][5]. Nuclear Power - In April 2025, the State Council approved 10 new nuclear units, maintaining a normalized approval process [2][5]. - Nuclear power generation for Q2 2025 was 50.4 billion kWh, up 10.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a low maintenance base in the previous year [2][5].