流动性跟踪：资金面多重扰动将至

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market is facing multiple disturbances next week, including tax payments, increased government bond supply pressure, and MLF withdrawals, which may amplify capital pressure and increase market demand for liquidity. The central bank's response will be a key factor in determining the stable operation of subsequent capital interest rates [1][20]. - This week, the capital gradually returned to a neutral state, and the capital interest rate moderately increased, reflecting the dynamic balance of monetary policy between "moderate" and "accommodative" [22]. - Next week, the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit will increase, and the prices of funds and certificates of deposit need to be observed. The central bank's mid - to long - term liquidity injection is the key [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds: Multiple Disturbances Approaching - This week, the open - market continued net withdrawals in the first half - week, and the capital gradually shifted from the initial relaxation to a balanced state. In the second half - week, the capital tightened, and the capital interest rate moderately increased. The large - bank lending decreased daily, and the price of certificates of deposit fluctuated more [1][10]. - Next week, multiple disturbances such as tax payments, increased government bond supply pressure, and MLF withdrawals will increase the pressure on the capital market, and the central bank's response will be crucial [20]. 3.2 Open Market: MLF Withdrawal of 10 Billion Yuan Next Week - From July 7th to 11th, the net open - market reverse repurchase investment was - 226.5 billion yuan. From July 14th to 18th, the open - market maturity scale is 525.7 billion yuan, including 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawals [2][28]. 3.3 Government Bonds: Net Payment to Rise to Nearly 40 Billion Yuan Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 271.1 billion yuan. Next week, the government plans to issue 428.3 billion yuan of bonds, with a net payment of nearly 40 billion yuan [40]. 3.4 Super - reserve Tracking Forecast - It is predicted that the super - reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.85%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.64 percentage points [46]. 3.5 Money Market: Capital Interest Rate Rising in the Second Half - Week - As of July 11th, compared with July 4th, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 all increased [51]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.2106 trillion yuan, an increase of 612.1 billion yuan compared with June 30th - July 4th [61]. 3.6 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1 Primary Market: Maturity Scale to Rise Next Week - This week (July 7th - 11th), the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 425.9 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 95.4 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased, but the net financing decreased compared with last week [75]. - Next week (July 14th - 20th), the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is 761.4 billion yuan, an increase compared with this week [85]. 3.6.2 Secondary Market: Yield to Rise Slightly - This week, the secondary yield of certificates of deposit increased, and most AAA and AAA - certificates of deposit exceeded 1.6% [5][97].