“反内卷”政策持续发力，钢铁板块估值修复未止

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a 3.90% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and plate steel also experiencing gains [2][10] - Despite a decrease in iron and steel production, the average daily molten iron output remains above last year's levels, indicating resilience in the market [3][25] - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which may lead to a gradual recovery in steel prices and profitability [3][41] - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investments [3][34] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 3.90%, with sub-segments like special steel up by 1.64% and plate steel up by 4.51% [2][10] - Iron ore prices increased by 7.16%, indicating strong demand for raw materials [12] 2. Supply Data - As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.9%, down by 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.61 million tons, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous week [25][30] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.73 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.38% [34] - The transaction volume for construction steel was 99,000 tons, down 7.04% week-on-week [34] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.14 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.23% week-on-week, but down 29.02% year-on-year [41][39] - Factory inventory increased to 4.26 million tons, up 0.42% week-on-week [41][40] 5. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,428.5 CNY/ton, up 1.14% week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar production was 196 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.81% week-on-week [56] - The average cost of molten iron was 2,173 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 25 CNY/ton [56] 6. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in firms like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to see earnings growth [72]