二手房周成交降至年内低位

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The real - estate market shows a weak trend this week. Second - hand housing transactions have declined both in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year, and new housing transactions have also decreased significantly, especially affected by the high base of the previous week's quarterly - end impulse [1][3] Summary by Related Content Second - hand Housing Transaction - Overall Situation: This week (July 4 - 10), the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 1.99 million square meters, hitting a low point this year (excluding holidays). The week - on - week decline was 5%, and the year - on - year decline was also 5%. Since early July, the cumulative year - on - year decline has been 6%, larger than the 3% decline in June [1] - By City Level: - First - tier Cities: The weekly transaction area of second - hand housing has changed from an increase to a decrease, with a week - on - week decline of 20%. Year - on - year, it has declined for five consecutive weeks, with a 7% decline this week. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen declined by 32%, 14%, and 5% respectively week - on - week, and Beijing and Shanghai declined by 21% and 5% year - on - year, while Shenzhen increased by 22% [2] - Second - tier and Third - tier Cities: The weekly transaction area of second - hand housing has changed from a decrease to an increase, with week - on - week growth of 3% and 21% respectively. Year - on - year, second - tier cities declined by 8%, and third - tier cities increased by 9% [2] New Housing Transaction - Overall Situation: This week, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 2.08 million square meters, with a week - on - week decline of 55% due to the high base of the previous week's quarterly - end impulse. Year - on - year, it has declined for five consecutive weeks, with a 17% decline this week. Since early July, the cumulative year - on - year decline has been 23% [3] - By City Level: - First - tier Cities: The weekly transaction area of new housing has changed from an increase to a decrease, with a week - on - week decline of 49%. Year - on - year, it has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an 11% decline this week. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declined by 26%, 64%, 57%, and 28% respectively week - on - week. Beijing increased by 59% year - on - week, while Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou declined by 39%, 53%, and 20% respectively [3] - Second - tier and Third - tier Cities: The weekly transaction area of new housing has also changed from an increase to a decrease, with week - on - week declines of 56% and 59% respectively. Year - on - year, second - tier and third - tier cities declined by 24% and 13% respectively [4] Key City Observation - First - tier Cities: - Second - hand Housing: From July 4 - 10, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities changed from an increase to a decrease week - on - week, and declined year - on - year for five consecutive weeks. Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai declined by 32%, 5%, and 14% respectively week - on - week. In terms of year - on - week, Shanghai and Beijing declined, while Shenzhen increased. In terms of month - on - month (July 1 - 10), Beijing and Shanghai declined, while Shenzhen increased [24] - New Housing: The weekly transaction area of new housing in first - tier cities declined by 49% week - on - week. All four cities declined. In terms of year - on - week, Beijing increased, while Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou declined. In terms of month - on - month (July 1 - 10), Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou declined, while Beijing was basically flat [24][25] - Hangzhou: This week, the weekly transaction areas of second - hand and new housing declined by 7% and 80% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 50% and 19% of the 2024 high points [25] - Chengdu: This week, the weekly transaction areas of second - hand and new housing increased by 4% and 13% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 57% and 42% of the 2024 high points [25] Housing Price Observation - From June 30 to July 6, the weekly listed prices of second - hand housing in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen declined by 0.70%, 0.18%, and 0.41% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they still declined by 1.5%, 6.0%, and 4.9% respectively [51]