权益ETF系列：关注结构变化，行情可能临近变盘点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the market, indicating that a turning point in market trends may be approaching [5][17]. - The overall market performance for the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, showed positive returns across most indices, but rapid rotation among stocks suggests a preference for holding rather than chasing hot stocks [17][20]. - The macro model for July scored -5, indicating a potential dominance of large-cap value stocks, while the overall market may experience adjustments [24]. - The technical timing model indicates a high risk level for the market, suggesting that while the trend remains positive, the relative position may be too high [17][21]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 7 - July 11, 2025) - Major broad indices showed varied performance, with the top three being the Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (2.99%), CSI 1000 (2.36%), and the ChiNext Index (2.36%) [10]. - Style indices also varied, with small-cap value (2.71%) and small-cap growth (2.31%) leading, while large-cap value (-0.18%) lagged [11]. - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, real estate (6.12%), steel (4.41%), and non-bank financials (3.96%) performed best, while coal (-1.08%) and banks (-1.00%) underperformed [15]. A-share Market Outlook (July 14 - July 18, 2025) - The report suggests a focus on structural changes, with a potential turning point in market trends [17]. - The macro model indicates that the market may experience adjustments, with a focus on performance post-earnings announcements [17][24]. - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, anticipating a relatively volatile market with ongoing structural opportunities [65][66]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report advocates for a balanced ETF allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of selecting funds with a minimum one-year establishment and a fund size exceeding 100 million [65][66].