国信期货生猪周报：消费支撑有限，现货震荡调整-20250713

Report Information - Report Title: "Consumption Support Limited, Spot Market in Oscillatory Adjustment - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market oscillated and adjusted due to insufficient consumption support, while the futures market continued to rise, weakening the basis. The spread between LH9 and LH11 ended its adjustment and rose again [7]. - From a fundamental perspective, sample data from market institutions showed a slight month - on - month increase in the inventory of breeding sows in June, indicating that the process of reducing production capacity was not smooth. The price of piglets rebounded recently, partly due to the recovery of breeding profits stimulating fattening farmers to replenish stocks, and partly due to the reduction in the number of piglets born in June, which may have provided some boost [7]. - In terms of spot, the large - scale enterprises' slaughter plan in July decreased, and the price of fat and standard pigs among small farmers was relatively high, which may lead to continued pressure on farmers to hold back pigs to increase the average weight. The overall supply pressure in July is not large, but the consumption performance lacks highlights. Consumption is expected to increase in August, and the increase in slaughter is limited. It is expected that the spot market will oscillate and adjust before rising seasonally again, but the overall upward space is limited [7]. - The current discount of the futures main contract LH09 to the spot has narrowed, and it will follow the spot market to oscillate strongly in the later stage. Due to the expected increase in future supply, the outlook for more distant contracts is still not optimistic. In terms of operation, go long on LH09 with an oscillatory strategy, and wait for opportunities to short on the distant - month contracts after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live pig spot market oscillated and adjusted last week, and the futures market rose, weakening the basis. The spread between LH9 and LH11 increased again. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly in June, and the price of piglets rebounded. The supply pressure in July is not large, and consumption is expected to increase in August. The spot market may rise seasonally after adjustment, and the futures main contract LH09 will follow the spot to oscillate strongly. Distant - month contracts are not optimistic. Operate by going long on LH09 and waiting to short on distant - month contracts [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - Not elaborated in the provided content 3. Live Pig Futures Market - Not elaborated in the provided content 4. Live Pig Spot Market - Not elaborated in the provided content 5. Live Pig Spot: Basis after Regional and Average Weight Adjustment - On July 9, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2509 at 14,265, the report provided the standard pig average price, weight range, regional premium and discount, standard pig basis, basis for different weight ranges, minimum basis, delivery storage capacity, and delivery speed for various provinces [21]. 6. Live Pig Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs - Not elaborated in the provided content 7. Live Pig Spot: Regional Price Difference - Not elaborated in the provided content 8. Changes in the Inventory of Breeding Sows - Not elaborated in the provided content 9. Changes in Piglets - Not elaborated in the provided content 10. Live Pig Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed Verification - Not elaborated in the provided content 11. Live Pig Slaughter - Not elaborated in the provided content 12. Frozen Meat Market Dynamics - Not elaborated in the provided content 13. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in the provided content 14. Comprehensive Monitoring of Live Pig Average Weight - Not elaborated in the provided content 15. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - The report introduced the reserve response mechanisms under the scenarios of excessive price decline and excessive price increase in the live pig market according to the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan for Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market" [69]. 16. Multi - Caliber Comparison - Not elaborated in the provided content