纸浆周报：低位反弹，需求改善仍然欠佳-20250713

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Prices: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - Pulp Import Volume in May: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - Port Inventory Situation: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - European Port Inventory in May: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - Consumption Situation: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].