白糖周报：郑糖震荡偏强，关注加工糖报价-20250713

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the previous rebound of Zhengzhou sugar caused by capital games has ended, and the market has turned to consolidation. The main short - position has reversed to a net long - position, which may support the sugar price to rebound further if the long - position increases. The domestic market is influenced by macro anti - involution and shows a bullish trend. The spot market has improved with rising prices. The upcoming June production and sales data is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Low inventory still supports prices, but attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar. The operating range is expected to be between 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. - In the international market, the raw sugar market has calmed down after significant fluctuations. The international market is still pressured by Brazil's large supply, but the market is not optimistic about Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June, with an expected year - on - year decline of 9.8% to 295,000 tons. Purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines in the international market may limit the downside of international sugar prices [59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. ICE sugar futures fluctuated slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.67% [9]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No specific data on price and basis trends are described in the provided text. - National Production and Sales Situation: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. - Sugar Import Situation: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4580 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import cost was 5822 yuan/ton [22]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 23,040, a decrease of 480 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 22,934, and the effective forecast was 106 [33]. - Brazilian Production Progress: In the first half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%, and the sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [37]. - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.45%, compared with 48.33% in the same period last year [39]. - Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports: Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24% [45]. - International Main Production Area Weather Conditions: There was little rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [53][55]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic Market: The domestic sugar market is expected to operate in the range of 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar [59]. - International Market: The raw sugar market is expected to have limited downside due to purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines, despite pressure from Brazil's supply [59]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term trading is recommended [60].