流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250713 ：如何看待税期前银行融出的持续回落-20250713

Group 1: Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 226.5 billion yuan, with a marginal tightening in the funding environment, as DR001 and DR007 remained below 1.35% and 1.5% respectively[6] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased slightly week-on-week, but the overall scale has dropped to the lowest level since early June, with a significant decline in net financing from large banks[13] - The funding gap index rose to -314.5 on Friday, indicating a worsening liquidity situation compared to the previous week's -701.0[13] Group 2: Government Debt and Tax Payments - This week, the net payment of government debt was 251.1 billion yuan, aligning with expectations, while next week is projected to see an increase to 428.5 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday and Tuesday[18] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 466.5 billion yuan, with special bonds at 2227.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 1215.6 billion yuan[18] - Next week, the expected scale of national debt payments is 491.2 billion yuan, with significant payments due on July 15, coinciding with the tax payment deadline[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The central bank's operations indicate a reluctance to allow DR001 to breach the 1.3% lower limit, leading to a decrease in net financing from large banks[16] - Despite the upcoming tax payments and government debt payments, the central bank is expected to increase open market operations to mitigate external disturbances, suggesting a stable liquidity environment[16] - Predictions for Q3 government debt net financing have been adjusted downwards, with expected issuance of approximately 2.54 trillion yuan in July and net financing of about 1.38 trillion yuan[18]