行业周报：出口链现布局拐点，加强底部稳健资产布局，聚焦新消费核心龙头-20250713

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening the bottom-line asset layout and focusing on core leaders in the new consumption sector, indicating a shift in the export chain layout [2][3] - The report highlights that the pulp price is expected to stabilize in Q3 and potentially recover in Q4, suggesting a bottoming out of the pulp cycle [2][3] - The report notes that the new tobacco sector, particularly the GLO HILO product, is expected to see accelerated shipment rhythms, indicating strong market potential [2][3] - The home furnishing sector is showing stable order performance, with companies like Qu Mei actively transforming their retail strategies [2][3] - The packaging sector is experiencing robust overseas orders, with expectations for a recovery in the metal packaging segment [2][3] - The report discusses the positive growth outlook for the pet industry, particularly for companies like Petty Co., which is expected to maintain stable export growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Arauco has restarted sales of hardwood pulp at $500 per ton, indicating a firm pricing stance despite buyer negotiations for lower prices [2] - The report anticipates that the pulp price will stabilize in Q3 and may recover in Q4 due to various market indicators [2][3] Export Sector - New tariffs imposed by the U.S. on certain countries are expected to impact the export landscape, but the overall direction appears to be stabilizing [2][3] - Costco's sales in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, indicating steady demand growth [2] New Tobacco - The GLO HILO product is expected to see an increase in market share due to improved product strength and channel capabilities [2][3] Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing stable performance, with companies like Qu Mei focusing on retail transformation and expanding into shopping center channels [2][3] Packaging - The report indicates strong overseas demand for paper packaging and a potential recovery in the metal packaging sector due to reduced competition [2][3] Pet Industry - Petty Co. is expected to achieve slight growth in exports, supported by strong relationships with overseas clients and a focus on customized products [4][5] E-commerce - The report highlights the impressive performance of "Jiao Ge Peng You" in H1 2025, with a GMV of approximately 69.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.11% [5] Tools - Ju Xing Technology is expected to see strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue projections indicating resilience despite uncertain tariff policies [5]