农商行债券投资情况梳理：农村金融机构持有多少债券？-20250713

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rural commercial banks (RCCs) have become important participants in the bond market, preferring to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participating in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, RCCs significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds, and their bond investment is shifting from "hold - to - maturity" to trading [1]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the proportion of commercial banks' bond investment is likely to increase. As the era of real estate wanes and infrastructure investment space shrinks, credit demand may be weak in the long run, and the asset structure of the banking system will change accordingly [1]. - The bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions is estimated to exceed 13 trillion yuan. If the bond investment ratio is controlled within 20% or 15%, it may lead to significant bond investment reduction and impact the bond market [1]. - Interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations in 25Q3. The report continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Information Rural Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Preferences - RCCs tend to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participate in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, they significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds [1]. Trend of Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Proportion - From the overall situation of small and medium - sized banks, the proportion of bond investment increased from 13.7% at the end of January 2015 to 22.7% at the end of May 2025 [1]. Estimation of Rural Financial Institutions' Bond - Holding Scale - As of the end of May 2025, small and medium - sized banks (joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and RCCs) held a total of 46.4 trillion yuan in bonds, accounting for 22.7% of total assets. As of the end of March 2025, if the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is the same as that of small and medium - sized banks, their bond - holding scale reaches 13.6 trillion yuan. If calculated based on the 27.8% bond investment ratio of A - share listed RCCs at the end of 2024, the bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions reaches 16.6 trillion yuan [1]. Potential Impact of Regulatory Policies - If the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is controlled within 20%, at least 1.6 trillion yuan of bond investment needs to be reduced; if controlled below 15%, the reduction scale exceeds 4.6 trillion yuan, which may significantly impact the bond market [1]. Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - In 25Q3, the possibility of an interest - rate cut is low, and interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. The report recommends band - trading interest - rate bonds and paying attention to the money supply. It continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1].