累库压力开始显现，塑料转入偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyethylene market is under pressure to accumulate inventory and has entered a weak and volatile phase [1]. - The actual inventory accumulation was slight this week, contrary to the expected destocking [5]. - The upstream profit is expected to continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to whether the import volume decreases in June [6]. - The basis fluctuated this week, and the inter - month spread fluctuated weakly [6]. - The HD - LL spread fluctuated, and it is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see for the far - month LL - PP spread [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Next week, the number of device overhauls will increase, and production may continue to decrease [5]. - The import volume this week was 28.89 million tons, and the main reason for the decrease was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand this week was worse than expected [5]. - The overall upstream operating rate was 60.10%, and the production decreased slightly this week. The total inventory was expected to be destocked but actually increased slightly [5]. - Crude oil prices fluctuated, and coal prices showed a weakening trend. The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased, and the profit of coal - based PE also decreased [6]. 2. Polyethylene Industry Situation Supply - From 2024 to 2025, there were multiple new PE device launches, including Ningxia Baofeng Phase III, Tianjin Nangang, Yulong Petrochemical, etc. in 2024, and Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. in 2025 [19][20]. - The production and import volume data from June 2025 to August 2025 are provided, and the cumulative production and import volume showed an increasing trend [8]. Demand - The downstream average operating rate, film - covering operating rate, and mulching film operating rate data are not clearly stated in the text, but it is mentioned that the downstream replenishment was not sustainable this week, and the transaction volume decreased [5][7]. - The profits of downstream products such as mulching film, double - prevention film, and winding film are presented in the form of charts, but specific profit data for this week are not clearly summarized [34][35][37]. Inventory - The upstream inventory of "Two - oil" decreased slightly, and the intermediate - level inventory of ports and traders also decreased. However, the total inventory increased slightly this week [5]. - The inventory data from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts, including petrochemical inventory, total PE inventory, upstream total inventory, and social inventory [42][43][45]. Valuation - The upstream profit, import and export profit, basis, inter - month spread, and variety spread data are provided. The upstream profit generally showed a weakening trend, and the basis and inter - month spread fluctuated [6]. 3. Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated this week. The North China basis quoted around 09 - 70 on Friday, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased [50]. - The inter - month spread, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 inter - month spreads, fluctuated weakly [6]. - The variety spread, such as HD - LL and LD - LL, also showed different trends of change [6]. 4. Summary and Outlook - It is necessary to beware of the callback risk, and the strategy is to buy out - of - the - money put options and sell call options [7]. - If the demand improves next week, the upstream inventory may decrease [5].